Dutch mortgage rates: forecast and history
We do not publish a rate forecast. Nobody can predict rates reliably. This page shows what the official figures say about the past 10 years.
Latest month in the ECB statistics: August 2026 (fetched )
- Variable / up to 1 year fixed
- 4.30%
- +0.31 pp in a year
- 1–5 years fixed
- 4.18%
- +0.46 pp in a year
- 5–10 years fixed
- 3.93%
- +0.43 pp in a year
- Over 10 years fixed
- 3.38%
- +0.47 pp in a year
History
- Variable / up to 1 year fixed
- 1–5 years fixed
- 5–10 years fixed
- Over 10 years fixed
| Year | Variable / up to 1 year fixed | 1–5 years fixed | 5–10 years fixed | Over 10 years fixed | All fixation periods | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.99% | 2.13% | 2.37% | 2.92% | 2.43% | 4 |
| 2017 | 1.97% | 2.20% | 2.34% | 2.94% | 2.41% | 12 |
| 2018 | 1.91% | 2.13% | 2.38% | 2.84% | 2.40% | 12 |
| 2019 | 1.83% | 2.04% | 2.21% | 2.71% | 2.27% | 12 |
| 2020 | 1.70% | 1.76% | 1.79% | 2.07% | 1.89% | 12 |
| 2021 | 1.62% | 1.62% | 1.60% | 1.80% | 1.70% | 12 |
| 2022 | 2.36% | 2.50% | 2.39% | 2.38% | 2.40% | 12 |
| 2023 | 4.59% | 4.43% | 3.72% | 3.20% | 3.84% | 12 |
| 2024 | 5.10% | 4.13% | 3.63% | 3.05% | 3.82% | 12 |
| 2025 | 4.22% | 3.74% | 3.39% | 2.83% | 3.41% | 12 |
| 2026 | 4.03% | 3.90% | 3.70% | 3.10% | 3.68% | 8 |
Years with fewer than 12 months average the months available.
What drives mortgage rates
- Capital market rates. Banks fund long loans with money they borrow for a long time. That rate (including swap rates) moves with expectations about inflation and the economy.
- ECB policy. The policy rate mostly affects short rates, such as variable mortgage rates.
- Competition and risk. Bank margins differ by period, NHG status and loan-to-value ratio.
For forecasts, read the source: publications by DNB, the ECB and the economics teams of banks. They state their assumptions. DNB: bank mortgage rates
Fixed or variable?
A longer fixed period gives certainty about your monthly cost. With less than 10 years fixed, lenders test at a minimum of 5%, which can lower your maximum mortgage. See the calculator.
Not advice.