Dutch mortgage rate forecast: ECB and bank views

Where Dutch mortgage rates come from, what the ECB, ABN AMRO and Rabobank expect (with dates) and how to choose a fixed-rate period. With a worked example.

Written by: Woningmarkt NL editors. Updated 17 October 2026

Where the rate comes from

Your mortgage rate broadly follows two things:

• Short-term rates. These are steered by the European Central Bank's official rates and mainly affect variable rates and short fixed periods. On 10 September 2026 the ECB raised its three key rates by 0.25 percentage points. From 16 September 2026 the deposit facility rate is 2.50%.
• Long-term rates. Yields on long-dated government bonds and swaps mainly drive 10-year-plus fixed rates. They move with inflation expectations and capital markets, not directly with the ECB.

On top of that the bank adds a margin for costs, risk and profit. That is why rates differ by bank, by fixed period and by risk class (for example with or without NHG).

History

Average Dutch mortgage rates by fixed period are charted on our mortgage rates and rate trend pages, based on DNB and ECB figures. Note that these are averages of new loans, published with a lag. They are not banks' current offer rates.

What do the ECB and banks expect?

We do not forecast rates ourselves. This is what others say, with dates:

• ECB, 10 September 2026: the ECB is not pre-committing to a rate path and decides "meeting by meeting" based on the inflation outlook. Staff projections see euro area inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.
• ABN AMRO, rate outlook of 16 September 2026: short-term mortgage rates (variable up to 5 years fixed) will rise slightly, long-term rates stay stable. From next year ABN AMRO expects a gradual decline.
• ABN AMRO, Housing Market Monitor of 1 October 2026: the bank expects two more ECB hikes, taking the deposit rate to 3%, and mortgage rates to stay higher for longer. It expects a decline only in the second half of 2027.
• Rabobank (RaboResearch), Housing Market Quarterly of 9 September 2026: the 10-year capital market rate had risen to about 3.3%; capital market rates are expected to ease somewhat in the coming years.

Forecasts are revised often. They are not guarantees.

Fixed or variable?

With a variable rate or short fixed period you benefit straight away when rates fall, but your payment also rises straight away when rates go up. With a long fixed period you know where you stand for years, but you often pay a slightly higher rate and penalty-free switching is limited.

Choosing a fixed-rate period

Two rules to keep in mind:

1. Test rate. Fix for less than 10 years and the lender tests with at least 5%, which can lower your maximum mortgage.
2. Mortgage interest relief. In 2026, interest in the top tax bracket is deductible at no more than 37.56% (Belastingdienst). So your net payment rises less than your gross payment when rates go up. ABN AMRO reports that the government's 2027 proposal raises this rate to 38.16%; that is not law yet and we have not confirmed it on an official source.

Ask yourself: could you carry a higher payment if rates are higher when your fixed period ends? If not, a longer period may suit you better.

Worked example

A €300,000 annuity mortgage over 30 years, gross payment in the first month:

• at 3.5%: about €1,347;
• at 4.0%: about €1,432;
• at 4.5%: about €1,520.

Each half percentage point is roughly €85 to €90 gross a month here. Net, the gap is smaller thanks to interest relief. Run your own numbers in the mortgage calculator.

Read more

• Mortgage rates by fixed period
• 10-year fixed
• Guides: how much can I borrow, NHG mortgage, house price forecast

Disclaimer

This guide is indicative and not financial advice. Forecasts by banks and institutions are not our predictions and not guarantees. Talk to an independent mortgage adviser.

This text was written with AI assistance. The editors checked the rules, figures and forecasts against the sources below (as of 17 October 2026).

Sources

1. ECB, Monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html
2. ABN AMRO, Mortgage rate outlook of 16 September 2026 (Dutch): https://www.abnamro.nl/nl/prive/hypotheken/actuele-hypotheekrente/voorspelling-ontwikkeling-hypotheekrente.html
3. ABN AMRO, Housing Market Monitor, 1 October 2026 (Dutch): https://www.abnamro.com/research/nl/onze-research/woningmarktmonitor-beter-in-2026-grotere-afkoeling-in-2027
4. Rabobank, Housing Market Quarterly, 9 September 2026 (Dutch): https://www.rabobank.nl/kennis/d011544570-kwartaalbericht-woningmarkt-markt-koelt-af-door-meer-aanbod-prijzen-stijgen-wel-licht
5. Belastingdienst, Reduced deduction for high incomes (Dutch): https://www.belastingdienst.nl/wps/wcm/connect/nl/koopwoning/content/tariefsaanpassing-eigen-woning
6. DNB, Bank mortgage rates dashboard (Dutch): https://www.dnb.nl/statistieken/dashboards/woninghypotheken/hypotheekrentes-banken/
7. Nibud, Advice on mortgage standards 2026 (minimum test rate; Dutch): https://www.nibud.nl/download/22171/

Not financial advice. This guide explains rules; your own situation may work out differently.

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