Dutch house price forecast 2026-2027: DNB and banks

Dutch house prices according to CBS and the Kadaster, and what DNB, Rabobank and ABN AMRO expect for 2026 and 2027, with dates and regional gaps.

Written by: Woningmarkt NL editors. Updated 17 October 2026

The trend according to CBS and the Kadaster

The price index for existing owner-occupied homes, published by CBS (Statistics Netherlands) and the Kadaster (land registry), is the official measure of price change. The latest monthly figure (published 22 September 2026):

• in August 2026 existing homes were on average 3.3% more expensive than a year earlier, down from 3.9% in July;
• compared with July, prices fell 0.1%;
• according to CBS, annual price growth has been slowing almost continuously since late 2024;
• prices were 17.8% above the previous peak of July 2022.

The average sale price over the whole of 2025 was €479,527 (CBS, updated 17 February 2026). Note that an average sale price is not a price index: it also shifts when a different mix of homes is sold. Yearly figures and city detail are on house prices.

What DNB and the banks expect

We do not make price forecasts ourselves. This is what others expect, with publication dates:

• DNB (Dutch central bank), Spring Projections (12 June 2026): existing home prices rising 3 to 4% a year from 2026 to 2028, clearly lower than a year earlier, because of weaker consumer confidence and higher mortgage rates. More landlords selling rental homes could make the rise slightly lower. (In its December 2025 Autumn Projections DNB still expected about 4% for both 2026 and 2027.)
• Rabobank, Housing Market Quarterly (9 September 2026): 4.2% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, revised up from its previous quarterly (2.8% and 2.0%).
• ABN AMRO, Housing Market Monitor (1 October 2026): 3.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. ABN AMRO expects a sharper slowdown in 2027 as mortgage rates stay higher for longer, but "for now" no fall in prices.

So all three expect slower growth in 2027 than in recent years, in a range of 2.5% to 4%. Forecasts are revised regularly.

Regional differences

The national average hides big gaps:

• Rabobank (9 September 2026) expects about 2% growth in 2026 in Greater Amsterdam and the Zaanstreek, against about 8% in East Groningen and Southeast Drenthe. It expects the gaps to narrow next year.
• ABN AMRO (1 October 2026) cites second-quarter growth of 0.8% in Amsterdam against 4.2% nationally and 7.9% in the province of Groningen.
• NVM (Q3 2026) reports 0.6% annual growth in Greater Amsterdam, against 8.3% in Southwest Drenthe and a slight fall in areas including the Haarlem and Leiden agglomerations. This covers homes sold through NVM agents.

See CBS prices by municipality on the map or by city, for example Amsterdam, Groningen, Utrecht and Rotterdam.

Worked example

As an illustration, not a prediction: what would the 2027 forecasts mean for a home worth €450,000 at the end of 2026?

• At 2.5% (ABN AMRO): about €461,250.
• At 3.2% (Rabobank): about €464,400.
• At 3% to 4% (DNB): about €463,500 to €468,000.

These are national averages. A single home or neighbourhood can do very differently, including falling.

Read more

• House prices in the Netherlands
• Compare cities
• Guides: overbidding, mortgage rate forecast, how much can I borrow

Disclaimer

This guide is indicative and not financial advice. The forecasts belong to the institutions named, not to us, and are not guarantees. Talk to an independent adviser.

This text was written with AI assistance. The editors checked the figures and forecasts against the sources below (as of 17 October 2026).

Sources

1. CBS, Price rise of owner-occupied homes slows further in August (22 September 2026; Dutch): https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2026/39/prijsstijging-koopwoningen-vlakt-in-augustus-verder-af
2. CBS, table 83625NED, existing owner-occupied homes; average sale prices, region: https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/83625NED
3. DNB, Spring Projections 2026 (12 June 2026): https://www.dnb.nl/en/publications/publications-dnb/edo/2026-spring-projections/
4. DNB, Autumn Projections 2025 (December 2025; Dutch): https://www.dnb.nl/publicaties/publicaties-dnb/eov/najaarsraming-2025/
5. Rabobank, Housing Market Quarterly, 9 September 2026 (Dutch): https://www.rabobank.nl/kennis/d011544570-kwartaalbericht-woningmarkt-markt-koelt-af-door-meer-aanbod-prijzen-stijgen-wel-licht
6. ABN AMRO, Housing Market Monitor, 1 October 2026: https://www.abnamro.com/en/news/housing-market-stronger-in-2026-sharper-slowdown-expected-in-2027
7. NVM, Q3 2026 housing market figures (Dutch): https://www.nvm.nl/nieuws/2026/nvm-meer-keuze-voor-kopers-woningverkopen-blijven-op-peil/

Not financial advice. This guide explains rules; your own situation may work out differently.

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